TORONTO (AP) — Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is on the verge of securing a majority government as special elections are held in three districts on Monday.
Votes are being cast in the Toronto-area districts of Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale, which are considered safe seats for Carney’s Liberals, and in the Montreal-area district of Terrebonne, which is considered a toss-up.
Winning just one of them would give Carney a majority. The Liberals now have 171 members of Parliament in the House of Commons. They need 172 to secure a majority government, which would allow them to unilaterally pass any bill.
Once the Liberals get that, they could stay in power until 2029 without the need for a new general election.
The results are expected Monday night.
Five defections from opposition parties to Carney, including four from the main opposition Conservative party, have put Carney’s Liberals on the cusp of the majority.
One of those defectors referenced Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, as helping his decision. In the speech, Carney condemned economic coercion by great powers against smaller countries and received widespread praise for his remarks.
Carne y won Canada’s election last year fueled by public anger over U.S. President Donald Trump’s annexation threats.
Carney, former head of the Bank of England as well as Canada’s central bank, has moved the Liberals to the center-right since replacing Justin Trudeau as prime minister in 2025.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, said the Liberals are almost certain to win the two Toronto seats and have a shot at winning in Terrebonne.
Béland said the deterioration of Canada-U.S. relations under the second Trump presidency has convinced many Canadians, including people who do not identify as Liberal, to rally behind the prime minister.
“Carney has thus far proved that he is an astute politician, despite the fact that he only formally entered the political arena in January of last year,” Béland said.
“The Davos speech has certainly helped boost Carney’s support at home, and he is now significantly more popular than when he became prime minister nearly 13 months ago.”
