Tornadoes, 80-mph damaging wind gusts possible in severe squall line, here’s timeline

Another round of severe thunderstorms is likely this evening across Lower Michigan. It’s going to be a rapidly changing weather situation for Lower Michigan this evening.

This storm system has what we meteorologists call “strong dynamics.” The upper-level winds are strong, and they serve as the engine of severe thunderstorms.As a result of these strong dynamics, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed most of Lower Michigan in a severe weather forecast of isolated tornadoes and strong, gusty thunderstorm winds. The discussion from SPC says 80 mph gusts are possible, given the amount of wind aloft.

Here are the forecasts of the three types of severe thunderstorm weather: tornadoes, wind gusts and large hail. The yellow shaded area has a 15 percent chance of severe weather, which is a high enough chance to closely monitor the weather.

The dynamics aloft that I earlier talked about, along with wind shear, make a few tornadoes possible almost anywhere in Lower Michigan. The real threat for tornadoes is across the southern half of Lower Michigan, and especially the southern third.

SPC mentions the top end of wind gusts out of thunderstorms could be 80 mph.

Any severe thunderstorm can produce hail. This evening’s storms aren’t expected to be significant large-hail producers. I’d still park your car in the garage this evening, before the thunderstorms head into your area.

The radar forecast gives you the timeline of the squall-line of severe thunderstorms.

Early this evening, 5 p.m. to 7 p.m., thunderstorms will develop over southwest and west-central Lower Michigan. The first thunderstorms could be isolated, supercell thunderstorms. These are the type of thunderstorm that can produce a tornado.

Eventually, by 7 p.m. to 8 p.m., the thunderstorms will gel into a solid line of thunderstorms. This line of thunderstorms will move across central and eastern Lower Michigan between 8 p.m. and midnight.

Be ready to take cover if the storms seem to be severe at your location. Give yourself a few minutes to get to an area of safety. Don’t wait until the last second to take cover.

Stay updated with any tweaks to the severe weather forecast at MLive.com/weather.

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